March Madness Survivor Tool

▶ How Survivor Pools Work & How to Read This Table

Survivor Pool Rules

Pick one team per round that you think will win their game. If they win, you advance. If they lose, you're eliminated.
You can only use each team once for the entire tournament. Once you pick Duke in Round 1, you can never pick Duke again.
The goal is to survive all 6 rounds (R64 through the Championship). Last person standing wins the pool.

Data Sources

Kalshi Tournament Futures — Per-team, per-round advancement markets on a CFTC-regulated prediction exchange. For example, "Will Duke qualify for the Sweet Sixteen?" Real money is traded on every outcome, so prices aggregate the collective wisdom of thousands of traders. The percentage columns (Make R32, Make S16, etc.) are derived from these futures prices.
Kalshi Per-Game Markets — Binary win/loss markets for each individual game. The Kalshi column shows the market-implied probability for each team winning their current-round game, calculated as the midpoint of the best bid and ask prices. Each team's Kalshi cell links directly to the specific market for that game.

How the Numbers Are Calculated

Cumulative probabilities (the round columns) are derived from Kalshi tournament futures markets. "Make S16 = 65%" means the market gives that team a 65% chance of reaching the Sweet 16.
Conditional (game-win) probabilities — shown when you hover a cell — are derived by dividing consecutive rounds: P(win R32 game) = P(make S16) / P(make R32). This gives the probability of winning that specific game, given the team made it there.
Kalshi probability (per-game column) = midpoint of the market bid/ask spread for the individual game market. For example, if a team's YES contract is bid $0.72 / ask $0.74, the implied probability is 73%.
Win & Out = P(make next round) − P(make round after that). This is the probability a team wins now but loses its next game — a "one-and-done" indicator. High Win & Out teams are best used in the current round rather than saved for later.
Best Pick = the latest round where a team's conditional game-win probability is ≥ 70%. This tells you the optimal round to "use" a team. Don't waste a 1-seed on R64 if they're still 80% to win in R32 — save them for when you need them.

Futures vs. Per-Game Markets

Futures (the round columns) are forward-looking — they price in the strength of opponents the team is likely to face in later rounds. A 1-seed might be 97% to win R64 but only 55% to make the Elite 8 because of a tough bracket path.
Per-game (the Kalshi column) reflects only the current single game. It often matches the R64 futures closely but can diverge when late-breaking news (injuries, lineup changes) hits the per-game market faster.
When futures and per-game odds disagree significantly, it's worth investigating — one market may have priced in information the other hasn't yet.

Strategy Tips

Use mid-seeds (5–8) in early rounds where they're still heavy favorites. Save 1–2 seeds for later rounds when games get tighter.
Sort by "Best Pick" to see which teams give you the most value in each round.
If a team's conditional win % drops below 60% in a round, that's a risky pick for survivor.
Check the Win & Out column — teams with high Win & Out are "use it or lose it" picks.

Team ▲	Seed ▲	Region ▲	Kalshi (Championship) i ▲	Win This Round & Out i ▲	Win Title i ▲	Best Pick i ▲
Duke	1	East	—	4.9%	4.9%	R32 (78.0%)
UConn	2	East	—	6.0%	6.0%	R32 (75.7%)
Michigan St.	3	East	—	3.3%	3.3%	R32 (73.1%)
Kansas	4	East	—	2.4%	2.4%	R32 (73.7%)
St. John's	5	East	—	2.2%	2.2%	R32 (72.4%)
Louisville	6	East	—	1.4%	1.4%	R32 (63.4%)
UCLA	7	East	—	0.8%	0.8%	R64 (62.5%)
Ohio St.	8	East	—	0.6%	0.6%	R32 (56.2%)
TCU	9	East	—	0.5%	0.5%	R32 (59.8%)
UCF	10	East	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (42.4%)
South Florida	11	East	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R64 (44.7%)
Northern Iowa	12	East	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (45.8%)
Cal Baptist	13	East	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (41.6%)
N. Dakota St.	14	East	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (43.8%)
Furman	15	East	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (35.6%)
Siena	16	East	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (30.0%)
Michigan	1	Midwest	—	4.5%	4.5%	R32 (75.7%)
Iowa St.	2	Midwest	—	5.3%	5.3%	R32 (75.5%)
Virginia	3	Midwest	—	2.2%	2.2%	R64 (82.5%)
Alabama	4	Midwest	—	3.4%	3.4%	R32 (75.8%)
Texas Tech	5	Midwest	—	1.9%	1.9%	R64 (75.2%)
Tennessee	6	Midwest	—	1.7%	1.7%	R64 (66.2%)
Kentucky	7	Midwest	—	1.9%	1.9%	R64 (68.2%)
Georgia	8	Midwest	—	0.5%	0.5%	R32 (61.5%)
Saint Louis	9	Midwest	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (52.7%)
Santa Clara	10	Midwest	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (56.1%)
Miami (OH)	11	Midwest	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (49.0%)
SMU	11	Midwest	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (54.8%)
Akron	12	Midwest	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (51.0%)
Hofstra	13	Midwest	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (40.9%)
Wright St.	14	Midwest	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (39.7%)
Tennessee St.	15	Midwest	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (41.5%)
UMBC	16	Midwest	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (31.2%)
Howard	16	Midwest	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (30.0%)
Florida	1	South	—	5.5%	5.5%	R32 (78.0%)
Houston	2	South	—	6.2%	6.2%	R64 (92.8%)
Illinois	3	South	—	4.4%	4.4%	R32 (79.0%)
Nebraska	4	South	—	2.6%	2.6%	R32 (71.4%)
Vanderbilt	5	South	—	1.7%	1.7%	R64 (67.4%)
North Carolina	6	South	—	0.8%	0.8%	R32 (59.2%)
Saint Mary's	7	South	—	1.1%	1.1%	R64 (70.1%)
Clemson	8	South	—	0.5%	0.5%	R32 (56.2%)
Iowa	9	South	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (46.1%)
Texas A&M	10	South	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (43.3%)
VCU	11	South	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R64 (45.7%)
McNeese	12	South	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R64 (42.5%)
Troy	13	South	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (46.4%)
Penn	14	South	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (41.3%)
Idaho	15	South	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (38.9%)
Prairie View A&M	16	South	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (28.6%)
Lehigh	16	South	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (30.0%)
Arizona	1	West	—	6.3%	6.3%	R32 (83.3%)
Purdue	2	West	—	7.0%	7.0%	R32 (75.1%)
Gonzaga	3	West	—	2.7%	2.7%	R64 (84.8%)
Arkansas	4	West	—	2.2%	2.2%	R64 (79.1%)
Wisconsin	5	West	—	2.0%	2.0%	R32 (70.2%)
BYU	6	West	—	1.3%	1.3%	R64 (66.4%)
Miami (FL)	7	West	—	0.9%	0.9%	R64 (70.0%)
Villanova	8	West	—	0.9%	0.9%	R32 (62.1%)
Utah St.	9	West	—	0.6%	0.6%	R32 (59.6%)
Missouri	10	West	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (42.2%)
Texas	11	West	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (51.0%)
NC State	11	West	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	S16 (46.0%)
High Point	12	West	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (42.7%)
Hawai'i	13	West	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	S16 (40.6%)
Kennesaw St.	14	West	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (41.4%)
Queens	15	West	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (39.5%)
LIU	16	West	—	<0.1%	<0.1%	R32 (30.0%)

📊 Future Value Rankings

Weighted FV = P(Win Championship) .
Positive FV → team is most useful this round (use now). Negative FV → team has significant future value (consider saving).

Region: Seed ≤ Search: Profile:

Team ▲	Seed ▲	Region ▲	Win Championship i ▲	Weighted FV i ▲
Houston	2	South	49.2%	+0.49
Purdue	2	West	49.0%	+0.49
Arizona	1	West	48.1%	+0.48
UConn	2	East	47.2%	+0.47
Arkansas	4	West	46.8%	+0.47
Michigan St.	3	East	46.5%	+0.46
Gonzaga	3	West	45.8%	+0.46
Wisconsin	5	West	45.5%	+0.45
Illinois	3	South	45.4%	+0.45
Kentucky	7	Midwest	42.2%	+0.42
Florida	1	South	42.0%	+0.42
Alabama	4	Midwest	42.0%	+0.42
Iowa St.	2	Midwest	41.4%	+0.41
Villanova	8	West	40.9%	+0.41
Duke	1	East	40.8%	+0.41
BYU	6	West	40.6%	+0.41
Michigan	1	Midwest	40.5%	+0.41
Louisville	6	East	40.0%	+0.40
Nebraska	4	South	40.0%	+0.40
Tennessee	6	Midwest	39.5%	+0.40
Vanderbilt	5	South	38.6%	+0.39
Virginia	3	Midwest	37.3%	+0.37
Miami (FL)	7	West	36.0%	+0.36
Georgia	8	Midwest	35.7%	+0.36
Kansas	4	East	35.3%	+0.35
Texas Tech	5	Midwest	35.2%	+0.35
Utah St.	9	West	33.3%	+0.33
UCLA	7	East	33.3%	+0.33
North Carolina	6	South	33.3%	+0.33
Ohio St.	8	East	31.6%	+0.32
TCU	9	East	31.2%	+0.31
Saint Louis	9	Midwest	30.8%	+0.31
Santa Clara	10	Midwest	30.8%	+0.31
St. John's	5	East	30.6%	+0.31
Saint Mary's	7	South	30.6%	+0.31
VCU	11	South	30.0%	+0.30
Northern Iowa	12	East	28.6%	+0.29
Iowa	9	South	28.6%	+0.29
Clemson	8	South	26.3%	+0.26
UCF	10	East	<0.1%	+0.00
South Florida	11	East	<0.1%	+0.00
Cal Baptist	13	East	<0.1%	+0.00
Miami (OH)	11	Midwest	<0.1%	+0.00
SMU	11	Midwest	<0.1%	+0.00
Akron	12	Midwest	<0.1%	+0.00
Texas A&M	10	South	<0.1%	+0.00
McNeese	12	South	<0.1%	+0.00
Troy	13	South	<0.1%	+0.00
Missouri	10	West	<0.1%	+0.00
Texas	11	West	<0.1%	+0.00
NC State	11	West	<0.1%	+0.00
High Point	12	West	<0.1%	+0.00

🏀 March Madness Survivor

🏀 March Madness Survivor — Kalshi Odds

Survivor Pool Rules

Data Sources

How the Numbers Are Calculated

Futures vs. Per-Game Markets

Strategy Tips

📊 Future Value Rankings

🏀 March Madness Survivor

🏀 March Madness Survivor — Kalshi Odds

Survivor Pool Rules

Data Sources

How the Numbers Are Calculated

Futures vs. Per-Game Markets

Strategy Tips

📊 Future Value Rankings ⬇ Export FV CSV

📊 Future Value Rankings